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Probability Theory

Statistics measures data; probability theory is the mathematics underneath it. Distributions as functions, expectation as an integral, and the laws that make averages settle down.

Уроки

Introductory Sample spaces and the axioms Kolmogorov's axioms, events as sets, conditional probability and Bayes. 1 - (5/6)^4 Core Random variables and expectation Distributions, expected value, variance, linearity of expectation. 10 * 1/2 Core The common distributions Bernoulli, binomial, Poisson, uniform, exponential, normal — and what each models. integrate e^(-x^2/2)/sqrt(2*pi) dx from -1.96 to 1.96 Advanced The law of large numbers and the central limit theorem Why averages converge and why they are normally distributed. limit of (1 + 1/n)^n as n -> oo

Chapters from Keller & Trotter, Applied Combinatorics

Every section of the book, condensed into a lesson with its own practice problems.

10. Probability

An Introduction to ProbabilityConditional Probability and Independent EventsBernoulli TrialsDiscrete Random VariablesCentral TendencyProbability Spaces with Infinitely Many OutcomesDiscussionProbability: exercises

11. Applying Probability to Combinatorics

A First Taste of Ramsey TheorySmall Ramsey NumbersEstimating Ramsey NumbersApplying Probability to Ramsey TheoryRamsey's TheoremThe Probabilistic MethodDiscussionApplying Probability to Combinatorics: exercises

Symbols used here

n!
factorial
n × (n−1) × … × 1; the number of orderings of n things. 0! = 1.
\binom{n}{k}
binomial coefficient, "n choose k"
Number of k-element subsets of n things: n!/(k!(n−k)!).
\sum_{k=1}^{n} a_k
summation
Add a_k for k = 1 up to n.
\int f(x)\,dx,\ \int_a^b
integral
Antiderivative (indefinite) or signed area from a to b (definite).
A \cup B,\ A \cap B,\ A \setminus B
union, intersection, difference
In either; in both; in A but not B.
\bar{x},\ \mu
sample mean, population mean
Average of the data; average of the whole population.
\sigma,\ s,\ \sigma^2
standard deviation, sample s.d., variance
Typical distance from the mean; its square.
P(A),\ P(A \mid B)
probability, conditional probability
Chance of A; chance of A given that B happened.
E[X],\ \operatorname{Var}(X)
expected value, variance
Probability-weighted average of X; its spread.
N(\mu, \sigma^2),\ z
normal distribution, z-score
The bell curve with mean μ and variance σ²; (x − μ)/σ.
\mu(A),\ \sigma\text{-algebra}
measure of A
Size of a set; the family of sets that can be measured.

Questions people ask

What is the difference between probability and statistics?

Probability goes from a known model to what the data should look like; statistics goes from data back to the model. Probability theory is the deductive half.

What does the law of large numbers promise?

That the average of many independent samples converges to the expected value. It says nothing about any single trial.

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