maths.free › Probability Theory › The common distributions

The common distributions

Bernoulli, binomial, Poisson, uniform, exponential, normal — and what each models.

Binomial counts successes; Poisson counts rare events; exponential waits for the next one; normal is what sums look like. Picture it: the bell curve and the 95% between ±1.96. Think it: the normal appears because of the central limit theorem, not because nature prefers it.

ნამდვილი ასლი: integrate e^(-x^2/2)/sqrt(2*pi) dx from -1.96 to 1.96

Calculus · Definite-Integrals

Integrate sqrt(2)·e^(-x^2/2)/(2·sqrt(pi)) from -1.96000 to 1.96000

\int_{-1.96}^{1.96} \frac{\sqrt{2} e^{- \frac{x^{2}}{2}}}{2 \sqrt{\pi}}\, dx

ჟრყოკა ოჲ ჟრყოკა.

  1. \int_{-1.96}^{1.96} \frac{\sqrt{2} e^{- \frac{x^{2}}{2}}}{2 \sqrt{\pi}}\, dx

    First find an antiderivative F, then evaluate F(b) − F(a).

  2. \int \frac{\sqrt{2} e^{- \frac{x^{2}}{2}}}{2 \sqrt{\pi}}\, dx = \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2 \sqrt{\pi}} \int e^{- \frac{x^{2}}{2}}\, dx

    Pull the constant \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2 \sqrt{\pi}} out of the integral.

  3. \int e^{- \frac{x^{2}}{2}}\, dx = \frac{\sqrt{2} \sqrt{\pi} \operatorname{erf}{\left(\frac{\sqrt{2} x}{2} \right)}}{2}

    Erf rule.

  4. F(1.96) - F(-1.96) = \left(\frac{\operatorname{erf}{\left(0.98 \sqrt{2} \right)}}{2}\right) - \left(- \frac{\operatorname{erf}{\left(0.98 \sqrt{2} \right)}}{2}\right)

    Fundamental theorem of calculus: plug in the limits.

  5. = \operatorname{erf}{\left(0.98 \sqrt{2} \right)} \approx 0.95000

    Simplify.

ჲრკპთირვ ჲრდჲგჲპა.
\operatorname{erf}{\left(0.98 \sqrt{2} \right)}

Symbols used here

\int f(x)\,dx,\ \int_a^b
integral
Antiderivative (indefinite) or signed area from a to b (definite).
\sqrt{x},\ \sqrt[n]{x}
square root, n-th root
The non-negative number whose square (n-th power) is x.
\pi
pi
Ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter, 3.14159…
e
Euler's number
2.71828…, the base whose exponential is its own derivative.
\approx
approximately equal
Equal to the precision shown, not exactly.
\leq,\ \geq
less/greater than or equal
Inequalities that allow equality; < and > exclude it.
n!
factorial
n × (n−1) × … × 1; the number of orderings of n things. 0! = 1.
\binom{n}{k}
binomial coefficient, "n choose k"
Number of k-element subsets of n things: n!/(k!(n−k)!).
\sum_{k=1}^{n} a_k
summation
Add a_k for k = 1 up to n.
A \cup B,\ A \cap B,\ A \setminus B
union, intersection, difference
In either; in both; in A but not B.
\bar{x},\ \mu
sample mean, population mean
Average of the data; average of the whole population.
\sigma,\ s,\ \sigma^2
standard deviation, sample s.d., variance
Typical distance from the mean; its square.
P(A),\ P(A \mid B)
probability, conditional probability
Chance of A; chance of A given that B happened.
E[X],\ \operatorname{Var}(X)
expected value, variance
Probability-weighted average of X; its spread.
N(\mu, \sigma^2),\ z
normal distribution, z-score
The bell curve with mean μ and variance σ²; (x − μ)/σ.
\mu(A),\ \sigma\text{-algebra}
measure of A
Size of a set; the family of sets that can be measured.

How to: The common distributions

  1. First find an antiderivative F, then evaluate F(b) − F(a).
  2. Pull the constant \frac{\sqrt{2}}{2 \sqrt{\pi}} out of the integral.
  3. Erf rule.
  4. Fundamental theorem of calculus: plug in the limits.
  5. Simplify.

Questions people ask

What is the difference between probability and statistics?

Probability goes from a known model to what the data should look like; statistics goes from data back to the model. Probability theory is the deductive half.

What does the law of large numbers promise?

That the average of many independent samples converges to the expected value. It says nothing about any single trial.

ჲოთრაი ჟამ.

მეტი Probability Theory

Sample spaces and the axiomsRandom variables and expectationThe law of large numbers and the central limit theorem